Cidel - Q3 | Quarterly Report
 

 

Looking Back
In our opinion, these were the most important stories of Q3...
Economic data around the world was increasingly supportive of global growth, inspiring confidence that central banks could pull back on their level of monetary support without adverse consequences. At the same time, growth currently isn’t so vigorous as to run the risk of forcing central banks to tighten on a reactive basis.
Corporate profitability trends remained solid, with aggregate earnings besting expectations in key markets around the world. Corporate confidence measures such as purchasing manager surveys remained robust- implying the outlook for profits remains sanguine.
Interest rates and commodity prices increased somewhat the UK remains at loggerheads with the EU, and sabre-rattling continued over the Korean Peninsula, but markets mostly shrugged all of this off, with volatility at historic lows.
The Canadian Dollar again rallied significantly versus the US Dollar, before giving back some of the gains through the end of September. The severity and speed of the move, more than the move itself, caught many by surprise.  
 

 

Looking Forward
Cidel’s Ron Patton highlights what has our attention in Q4...
Normalization of Interest Rates – A Concern? Not yet! The path to higher rates is just beginning, and history tells us equity markets can do well in the beginning stages of a tightening environment.   With economic indicators positive and the yield curve still upward sloping, major concerns are at bay.
Inflation Still Below Target but Expected to Rise – Central banks continue to believe that inflation should tick up, but we think that long-terms structural issues will keep inflation muted, easing worries of more aggressive interest rate paths.
Canadian Economic Growth to
Moderate –
Economic data has been solid, but we believe that interest rate increases will impact certain sectors negatively, and the NAFTA overhang, could weigh on growth.
Synchronized Global Growth Should Continue – Global equity valuations are modestly above historical levels, but we are positive on corporate profit growth. Barring a significant geopolitical event, prognosis for global equities remains solid.
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Impact of Passive on Active

We dive into the rise of passive investing and its impact on active managers.

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In Focus: Global Infrastructure

What do investors need to be aware of when considering investment in infrastructure?

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Away From the Desk

Cidel in the News

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This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained in this document has been compiled by Cidel Asset Management Inc. from sources believed to be reliable, but no representations or warranty, express or implied, are made by Cidel Asset Management Inc. as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The opinions expressed are as of the date of this publication and may change without notice and are provided in good faith, but without legal responsibility. Cidel Asset Management Inc., carrying on business as Cidel, Cidel Financial Group, Toron Asset Management International, (“Cidel”) is registered as a portfolio manager, investment fund manager and exempt market dealer in Ontario. Cidel is also registered as a portfolio manager and exempt market dealer in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Quebec and Saskatchewan. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient hereof for any purpose.